In the previous post, the Assets-based method was discussed which does not take into account any “Good Will” that your company may have. Companies usually have at least some Good Will, so in most cases you get a higher valuation by using Discounted Cash Flow or Comparable methods of valuation. Today’s focus is on Discounted Cash Flow.
Discounted Cash Flow
In this method, the acquirer is estimating what your future stream of cash flow is worth to them today. They start by trying to figure out how much profit you expect to make in the next few years. The more stable and predictable your cash flows, the more years of future cash they will consider.
Once the buyer has an estimate of how much profit you’re likely to make in the foreseeable future, and what your business will be worth when they want to sell it in the future, the buyer will apply a “discount rate” that takes into consideration the time value of money. The discount rate is determined by the acquirer’s cost of capital and how risky they perceive your business to be.
Rather than getting hung up on the math behind the discounted cash flow valuation technique, it’s better to understand the drivers of your value when you use this method. They are: 1) how much profit your business is expected to make in the future; and 2) how reliable those estimates are.
Note that business valuation techniques are either/or and not a combination. For example, if you are using Discounted Cash Flow, the hard assets of the company are assumed to be integral to the generation of the profit the acquirer is buying and therefore not included in the calculation of your company’s value. The Discounted Cash Flow method is typically done for larger companies.
A money-losing bed and breakfast sitting on a $2 million piece of land is going to be better off using the Asset-based valuation method; whereas a professional services firm that expects to earn $500,000 in profit next year, but has little in the way of hard assets, will garner a higher valuation using the Discounted Cash Flow method or the Comparable technique, to be discussed in the next post. Stay tuned.